Well Readers, I've hiked Half Dome! One more thing to check off my list. Now bear in mind, I have a slight fear of heights, and when I was about to get on the cables, I definitely had some second thoughts. But it took so long to even hike up to the cables in the first place, I wasn't about to quit right before the end. Check out a few of these pictures. It was an amazing trip.
Make sure to bring plenty of water. The hike took about 7 hours, and it was about 11 miles. It's an amazing feeling to be at the top.
Our government and financial system are as corrupt as ever. With every news story that comes out, my heart sinks lower and my anger grows towards our 'elected' officials. I have dreams of stabbing ice picks in to the genitals of politicians from both sides of the isle. I was about ready to lose it yesterday when I heard Paulson talking about giving a $700 Billion blank check for the 'bailout' with no oversight and no regulation. These thieves in the government are stealing from each other, and now THEY are making it policy to have the American people pay for their greed. Can things get any worse?
In an angry rant to my older brother, I told him how I would like to see public executions brought back like we did to the tyrannical British during the Revolutionary war. But my brother brought me back to reality by speaking some wise words. He explained that even though our political system is as fucked up as ever, on a day to day basis, we Americans still have it pretty good. We still have food on the table, clothes and shelter. He expounded on this more, but you get the picture. So I emplore you all who follow me, the Aspiring survivalist, hold fast everybody, don't dispair. Keep your guns loaded, but don't dispair. We will rise from this crisis, even if we have to personally oust each member of our disgusting congress.
While driving from Sacramento to San Francisco for a job interview, I was on 80 West when I came upon heavy traffic. Wanting to save gas, I leave at least 10 car lengths between me and the car in front of me. Now, I'm not directing this toward you, my beloved reader, but what is wrong with people? Why do people tailgate in heavy traffic? It's hilarious, you see them jam on the gas pedal, go 10 feet, then slam on the breaks, then repeat this gas-wasting maneuver every time traffic moves a few feet.
Do these idiots realize they aren't getting ahead of anybody? All they are doing is wasting their own gas money. I laugh at these people, and I laugh at the people who zoom ahead of me to fill in the gap that I've left between me and the car in front of me. I'm not driving like an old grandma, I'm just leaving enough space so that I can coast to slow down, instead of jamming on the break pedal. My fuel economy has increased by at least 20% since implementing this new style of driving. Try it folks, you'll be impressed with how fat your wallet is and how much faster you can increase your stockpile.
I don't know if you all have heard, but mother Russia has sent their flagship Peter the Great tothe Caribbean. You can read the storyhere. Russia's reasoning is so long as Americans have our warships in the Black Sea due to the Georgia conflict, they will have their flagship nuclear-powered missile cruiser on our shoreline. Russia is also talking with Cuba and Venezuela to begin having permenant presence in both of these country's.
My question to all of you; Why the fuck hasn't this been a top headline on the Today show and the US news media? Talk about important issues, we have Russia's greatest warship practically docking in America?
What is wrong with the fucking media. I guess they don't want to create a panick, since they have the wool over our eyes with this financial crisis that is all too real, but us American's are too uneducated to understand that it's only gonna get worse.
Like me, I'm sure most of you are ready to tear the genitals off of the next person to blog about Obama or McCain. I don't want to go into all of the issues right now, because the TV ad's don't tell us shit. We'll have to wait for the debates to see who can really walk their talk. I would like to just ask Aspiring Survivalist Readers and get a beat on where all of you stand on who will be the next president. So please, comment and let us know who you stand for and why?
In my previous post I mentioned the need to have items that will be highly sought in the event of social and/or economic collapse. Well, I touched on procuring hard-to-find items such as morphine, codeine, Oxycontin and the likes. These items are not only extremely hard to find, but also highly illegal unless you are prescribed them by a Dr. Might I suggest an alternative. Poppy pods on E-bay. There is a massive abundance of opium poppy pods on E-bay, just search 'poppy pods' and you'll find tons of 'em. They are easily converted into a painkilling tea.
All you need is:
1. Poppy pods (1-2 pods per person)
2. Coffee filter & cup
3. Blender (optional, but makes it easy)
4. Hot Water (just under boiling temp.)
I have laid out instructions on how to transform these poppy pods in to pain killing tea.
I DO NOT CONDONE THE USE OF ANY OPIATE. THEY ARE HIGHLY ADDICTIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED RECREATIONALLY.
CAUTION: Poppy tea is highly, highly addictive. Do not use for recreational use. The last thing you want when the SHTF is to be addicted to opiates. Your head will not be right. But, if you have a stash of these, you can use them for trade and for many medicinal purposes should you or someone in your retreat party need some pain relief. Some sellers on E-bay that are reliable are The Transplants. Again, while poppy pods are legal to purchase as Flower Arrangements, it is highly illegal to use as poppy tea. This is for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. DO NOT ATTEMPT.
PROCEDURE:
Brewing up a batch of poppy tea is easy. Essentially all there is to it is grinding up some pods and adding them to boiled water. Presented below is a typical recipe for Poppy Tea. Make sure to always start with very few pods, and then work your way up to receive the desired effects. Remember - it's better to start small and feel nothing, then to use too much and end up dead. Of course, this recipe is provided for informational purposes only, and it is not recommended that you actually try this:
Step one: Take your supply of poppy pods and grind them in a coffee grinder to create as fine a powder as possible. Mix the powder into a homogenous product, so as to account for variations in potency between one pod and the next.
Step two: Measure out five pods worth of powder. If you are using more "potent" strains such as hens and chickens, start with perhaps two. If you have a high tolerance to opiates, you can try more. But always remember to start SMALL. It's always better to waste some pods than to overdose!
Step three: Boil two cups of water on the stove. Once the water is boiling, remove from the heat and add your powdered pods. Do not boil the pods!
Step four: Stir occasionally, allowing around 10-15 minutes for the tea to "steep", and cool.
Step Five: Pour the contents through a strainer or cheesecloth into a mug. Save the used pulp from the strainer, as it can be used again, although at about half the strength. Only use one cup of water when doing a re-brew.
Step Six: Drink the mixture, including any powdery residue left at the bottom of your mug, as it will also contain alkaloids. Waste not want not!
Many people simply cannot stand the taste of the tea. It can be quite horrible in fact, especially if you can't handle bitter flavours well. Some people like to add some honey or sugar to their tea to mask the flavour. Others say that mixing the tea with Orange Juice can totally mask the flavour, without reducing the effects. In the end, it's up to you.
Remember, as with any opiate based substance, it is possible to both overdose or become addicted to poppy tea. So use caution! It's always better not to start at all, but if you must, it is imperative that you treat these powerful substances with the respect that they deserve.
Since starting my closet stockpile a few months ago, it becomes an exciting addiction to beef up my supplies. Start out small. When you make your weekly trips to the supermarket, throw 1 item in your cart that you will put away in your survival stash. On my last trip to Safeway I bought a gallon jug of water. I now have 5 one gallon jugs in my closet. It's exciting to know that I am preparing myself, albeit very slowly. I have also begun stocking cans of beans, spaghetti oh's and other canned goods that have a long shelf life. Because I live in a second story condo, my room is limited. But as my stockpile grows, the more fun it becomes. I also purchased freeze dried nuts. Get a variety of things. You'll be surprised how good you feel knowing that you have planned for the future.
Again, I have not had to make any drastic changes in my life. But just being conscience and aware of the fact that when the government can no longer provide water and energy to us, it is our responsibility to be prepared for that.
Also, make sure to stock away vices. Vices will be great bargaining tools, such as extra bottles of whiskey (or other favorite boozes), vodka (good for an antiseptic for wounds too), a carton or two of cigarettes. Even if your not a cigarette smoker, these items will be highly sought out if the financial system collapses. Also, items such as reading glasses, soap, moist towlettes, medicines. If you can get your hand on analgesics (pain killers) such as codeine, oxycontin, morphine and aspirin & ibuprofen, all of these things will be highly sought after and you can trade these items to feed your family. Some of these things that you can purchase now are poppy pods from e-bay. Most of e-bay's revenue when it was a start-up company was generated from the sale of poppy pods that you can crush up and drink as poppy tea, an incredibly powerful pain killer. Go on E-bay and search 'poppy pods', you'll find hundreds of sellers. Stock up on some of those now for when TSHTF.
I realize that the title is a contradiction. After you spend time reading survival blogs, you will quickly recognize interesting lingo that are common sense, but important to understand. Today we'll look the difference of on-grid and off-grid people.
On or off grid refers to the nations power supply. Does your lifestyle depend on being connected to a local power company and paying your energy bills? For 99.9% of us this is true. Well, maybe 99.8% now with all the doom & gloom in the media. But almost all of us require power for the activities we do at home, and to generate an income at our jobs. I like to think of on 0r off grid as a concept to help determine how plugged in I am regarding each facet of my life. It raises interesting questions to ask yourself. For example, how would I get my food if the local Safeway & Taco Bell were closed? How would I get the 1/2 gallon of water I need each day if the faucets didn't work? How and where would I cook food, and where would that food come from?
For the more dedicated survivalist, they have these questions answered. They have built a self-sufficient homestead out in the boonies, which is essential because in the case of a breakdown in society, safety will be found away from the masses, not among them. They have food, water and shelter prepared for them to live at least a few months before they would need to go out hunting and gathering. Many of them lead two lives, one plugged in and their backup life for when they need to get out! They have an off-grid plan, which is essentially what defines a surivalist.
I am still on an on-grid survivalist, with no off-grid backup life. But it has been only in the past few months that I have even begun thinking along survivalist terms, so cut me some slack. I am quite proud of my small but sufficient closet full of supplies. I must be truthful, I don't think at this point I will be any better off than the rest of the country would be if we had a social collapse, but I am making steps to get there, which is what you should be doing.
Smart retreat locations throughout the country will be discussed in detail another time.
With our American embassy in Yemen being attacked, our financial system in disarray and America's deserved lack of faith in our political system, the end of society as we currently live it may soon be over.
I'd like to share with you two ideas that I have incorporated in to my overall survival plan:
- Water; This is the ONLY 'item / resource' I will bring up, because before I turned into an aspiring survivalist, I overlooked water. Imagine if no water came out of your faucets? Will you haul water to your house in buckets? Will you expect the government to helicopter in supplies? I rest my case. At the minimum, the average person should have 1.5 gallons of water per day. You may be thinking damn, I don't even drink that much right now! Well start drinking more damn it, it's your kidneys. And the absolute minimum you should have 3 days worth of water for each person & pet in your retreat group.
- Retreat Group; Each person has strengths and weaknesses. Some people know how to work a garden, others know how to fish, hunt or whip up a great meal out of chicken shit. We each bring something to the table. A retreat group are the people in your life who you have coordinated to maintain contact with when disaster strikes. When choosing your survival group, try to choose some people in your life who have different skill sets. That cousin of yours that has bad breathmay be good at gardening, or knows how to fix a computer. After deciding on your core retreat group, let them in on your idea. Believe it or not, most American's do not think about survival beyond their next paycheck, so don't be afraid to let them know you've included them in your plan when the sh!t hits the fan. They will be flattered that you thought of them, even if they think your a little nuts at first. Make a plan with each member of your retreat group on various locations and ways to meet and contact one another. If the power grid is down, and cell towers are out, you'll need another way to contact each other. Are you gonna write a letter? No, you'll need to act quickly, and have a plan on where to meet. Creating a retreat group may sound like a no-brainer, but it's an important step that must not be overlooked.
- Learn a skill; When we are shoveling our paper money in the fireplace to keep warm, the 'jobs' that we all performed so well at in our day to day lives will become useless, with little transferrable skills to take back home to feed our family. You will need some sort of trade. Be it a candle maker, basket-weaver, hunter, fisherman, blacksmith, gardener, raising livestock or so many other trades, learn something that will make you valuable. You will want to bring a value where YOU go, it will not be where your wallet goes. I have started to do this. I have been a salesman throughout my working career. I doubt I can convince a deer to jump onto my plate, so I have been honing my fishing skills, and I am getting into metalsmithing.
Unfortunately we polished off our bottle of doomsday whiskey at a party my wife put on.
BE CAREFUL. The more information you uncover about Michael Ruppert'sstory, the deeper it goes.
From the Wilderness was created and is maintained by Michael Ruppert. Ruppert has an incredible story. During my senior year at California state university Chico, I attended one of his speeches. Outstanding. It was exciting just to watch him. He started out his speech by giving us his resume, and it was impressive. An LAPD Cop in the 70's he resigned in the 80's and turned to a whistle blower after the various unbelievable truths he uncovered within our government.
He has documented accounts of attempts on his life. After turning whistleblower against the U.S. Government, Ruppert was shot at when trying to expose documents that laid out how the CIA profits from the illegal drug trade. His presentation included light projected documents that he would display as proof. He had sources on what he spoke about. He has many theories. I don't want to label them 'conspiracy theories' because I feel that is taken negatively, and you should not discover Michael Ruppert with any preconceived notions. The most influential aspect of Rupperts mission is that all he wants is to spread the truth of the American government. He's not trying to become rich, he's not a politician, he's just a cop turned whistleblower!
From FTW Website;
Mike is a former LAPD narcotics investigator, whistleblower and a 1973 Honors Graduate of UCLA in Political Science. After attempting to expose this he was forced out of LAPD in 1978 while earning the highest rating reports possible and having no pending disciplinary actions. In 1996, after 18 years of struggle, he finally achieved one of his deepest wishes in a face to face public encounter with then CIA Director John Deutch on national television. Washington sources later told Mike that Deutch's mishandling of the encounter cost him a guaranteed appointment as Secretary of Defense.
On November 28, 2001 Mike gave his first post 9-11 lecture at Portland State University, which was attended by more than 1,000 and resulted in a standing ovation. FTW's video, The Truth and Lies About 9-11, has sold more than 15,000 copies. It includes special exclusive interviews with Representatives Ron Paul (R-TX), Cynthia McKinney (D-GA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Professor Peter Dale Scott, (UC, Berkeley), Professor John Metzger (Michigan State) and Catherine Austin Fitts (former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Managing Director, Dillon Read).
Here is a story from National Geographic about the world's fragile soil and their diminishing capacity to feed 6.5 billion+ people as well as cautionary examples of places where the soils can no longer support the existing population due to poor stewardship in the past.
Our economy is in shambles, we are fighting wars on many fronts and we now have Iran stepping up their nuclear interests by leaps and bounds. Coupled with Russia and China, do you foresee a new alliance forming? Do I hear our government issuing a draft in the next 5 years?
We must always be aware and prepared of what our competition for the World's next superpowers are doing.
It's incredible to think that in my lifetime (I'm 28) that I may see another country rise as the World's superpower. I think that's one plague on my generation, is that we have never seen America struggling with another country, as even my parents did with Russia during the Cold War. From what I have experienced, we have always been the dominant country. I don't know how long this will last.
You have probably noticed that I am providing a lot of information on the fragile balance of food, population and natural resources, but I have not posted any personal opinions or commentary about it. I have purposely restrained myself from doing so. You must understand my motivation behind this blog.
My wife and I are going to be having a new child soon. That is my motivation. That's it, nothing fancy. What kind of world my child will grow up in? The age old cliche'. I want to do my part to change the course of our society to become more responsible. With your support we can help America carve a new path. Your support requires only that you become mentally aware that Peak Food threatens the existence of the society we live in. The truth of this crisis is simple enough to understand that it speaks for itself;
America's food production is based on technology that uses oil.
Oil is a limited resource.
As we run out of oil, we will run out of food.
Humans that are survival conscience and have accepted the fact that society can change at any moment are the ones thinking how can they use our resources responsibly. I strive to be like this, and so should we all. It does not need to be a dramatic change. You do not have to sell all of your possessions, become an outcast of society and live in a homestead kitty in Montana (which if I had the balls to do it would be an amazing adventure), but to do the simple things such as;
- Eenergy efficient light bulbs - Water-responsible landscaping - Turning off lights - Shower instead of bathe - Drive Responsibly
Unlike most media today, I have no hidden agenda here. I am not here to promote a company, a political party or a religious ideal. All I want is for each of us to be aware of the impact we make on our environment. Just being aware of it is enough to effect change. The above steps you can take are great ways you can have less impact on our natural resources, and they save you money! It's a win-win.
And if you start becoming more aware of your environmental impact, please don't start pointing out the faults of your friends and family. This is a poor reaction I see when many people begin caring about the environment. They start to point out what everybody is doing wrong. They do this because they think that it takes everybody changing to make a difference. While they may have the best of intentions, this is not the proper message to convey. I have personally made this mistake and have almost lost friends and family because of it. That is why I have restrained myself from expressing my opinions so far on this blog. The truth of this crisis is simple enough to understand that it speaks for itself. Nobody is going to change because you tell them to, they will change after they see how you have changed. Just the fact that you save money will be a perfect reason for them to change as well. When they ask what has prompted you to change, then you can let them in on your new outlook!
You have probably noticed that I am providing a lot of information on the fragile balance of food, population and natural resources, but I have not posted any personal opinions or commentary about it. I have purposely restrained myself from doing so. You must understand my motivation behind this blog.
My wife and I are going to be having a new child soon. That is my motivation. That's it, nothing fancy. What kind of world my child will grow up in? The age old cliche'. I want to do my part to change the course of our society to become more responsible. With your support we can help America carve a new path. Your support requires only that you become mentally aware that Peak Food threatens the existence of the society we live in. The truth of this crisis is simple enough to understand that it speaks for itself;
America's food production is based on technology that uses oil.
Oil is a limited resource.
As we run out of oil, we will run out of food.
Humans that are survival conscience and have accepted the fact that society can change at any moment are the ones thinking how can they use our resources responsibly. I strive to be like this, and so should we all. It does not need to be a dramatic change. You do not have to sell all of your possessions, become an outcast of society and live in a homestead kitty in Montana (which if I had the balls to do it would be an amazing adventure), but to do the simple things such as;
- Eenergy efficient light bulbs
- Water-responsible landscaping
- Turning off lights
- Shower instead of bathe - Drive Responsibly
Unlike most media today, I have no hidden agenda here. I am not here to promote a company, a political party or a religious ideal. All I want is for each of us to be aware of the impact we make on our environment. Just being aware of it is enough to effect change. The above steps you can take are great ways you can have less impact on our natural resources, and they save you money! It's a win-win.
And if you start becoming more aware of your environmental impact, please don't start pointing out the faults of your friends and family. This is a poor reaction I see when many people begin caring about the environment. They start to point out what everybody is doing wrong. They do this because they think that it takes everybody changing to make a difference. While they may have the best of intentions, this is not the proper message to convey. I have personally made this mistake and have almost lost friends and family because of it. That is why I have restrained myself from expressing my opinions so far on this blog. The truth of this crisis is simple enough to understand that it speaks for itself. Nobody is going to change because you tell them to, they will change after they see how you have changed. Just the fact that you save money will be a perfect reason for them to change as well. When they ask what has prompted you to change, then you can let them in on your new outlook!
"And he gave it for his opinion that whoever could make two ears of corn or two blades of grass to grow upon a spot of ground where only one grew before, would deserve better of mankind, and do more essential service to his country than the whole race of politicians put together." (Jonathon Swift, Gulliver’s Travels, 1726)
Barring nuclear wars, pandemics and cosmic accidents, there will be about 9.3 billion people living in the world of 2050 ‐ but they will eat as much food as 13 billion people at today’s nutritional levels.
By 2050, 7 billion out of 9 billion people will face chronic‐to‐critical water shortages. (IWMI)
Considering a growth rate of 1.1% per year, the U.S. population is projected to double by 2050. As the population expands, an estimated one acre of land will be lost for every person added to the U.S. population. Currently, there are 1.8 acres of farmland available to grow food for each U.S. citizen. By 2050, this will decrease to 0.6 acres. 1.2 acres per person is required in order to maintain current dietary standards.
The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. The oncoming peaking of global oil production (and subsequent decline of production), along with the peak of North American natural gas production will very likely precipitate this agricultural crisis much sooner than expected. Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.[16]
Water deficits, which are already spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India.[17] The water tables are falling in scores of countries (including Northern China, the US, and India) due to widespread overpumping using powerful diesel and electric pumps. Other countries affected include Pakistan, Iran, and Mexico. This will eventually lead to water scarcity and cutbacks in grain harvest. Even with the overpumping of its aquifers, China has developed a grain deficit, contributing to the upward pressure on grain prices. Most of the three billion people projected to be added worldwide by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. After China and India, there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits — Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Pakistan. Four of these already import a large share of their grain. Only Pakistan remains marginally self-sufficient. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year, it will also soon turn to the world market for grain.[18][19]
BARRING NUCLEAR WARS, pandemics and cosmic accidents, there will be about 9.1 billion people living in the world in 2050. Yet they will eat as much food as 13 billion people at today's nutritional levels. So how will we feed them all? The answer to this question could be the greatest scientific challenge of the 21st century – greater even than finding a solution to climate change.
The problem is that humanity is consuming more food, year-on-year, than it produces, especially as demand for high-protein food increases in high population developing countries like China and India.
The world is also moving towards a water crisis: cities are now taking up to half of the water that was once used to grow food, while groundwater levels are declining in every country where it is used for food production. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in the U.S. suggests that by 2025 water scarcity may inflict an annual loss of 350 million tonnes of food – roughly equivalent to losing today's global rice harvest or the entire U.S. grain crop.
We're also losing land; we are building on it, eroding and degrading it, or locking it in conservation reserves. Whatever the cause, the total available area of arable land is now falling. Compounding this, we are losing nutrients in the land we do have.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation notes that we apply about 150 million tonnes of elemental fertiliser to our farms every year; however the U.S. Department of Agriculture points out that we lose six times that amount – an estimated 1.1 billion tonnes of nutrients – through soil erosion and leaching.
The rise of biofuels presents another serious issue since it takes over arable land and diverts resources from food production (see, Non-crop biofuels to boost food security, Cosmos Online). It is estimated that by 2020 we will be burning 400 million tonnes of grain a year – equivalent to the entire world rice crop – just to keep our cars on the road.
And if you thought those figures weren't alarming enough, then there's the issue thrown up by climate change. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the U.S. says "agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 per cent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 per cent."
In light of all these hurdles, as I see it, the challenge is to double world food output by 2050 using less land, far less water and fewer nutrients – all in the teeth of increasing rates of drought. And we need to do it sustainably.
In Australia, discussion about the future of agriculture has largely been about drought and climate change, and has ignored the fact that the world may be entering a prolonged period of shortages and famines at a time of vastly increased demand for food. At top policy level in Australia and many other countries there is apathy about a potentially grave problem facing humanity in the medium term.
This situation brings with it the very real possibility of regional and global instability. It is already manifest in rising food prices in the U.S., Australia and many other countries around the world. According to the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, around 60 per cent of conflicts in the last 15 years have had, at their core, a scarcity of food, land or water.
Many countries, including Australia, have not yet grasped that agricultural policy is defence policy, refugee policy, immigration policy and environmental policy as well as health, food and economic policy. We persist in seeing it as an isolated issue, and we cannot afford to do so for much longer.
I believe we are quite capable of solving these issues through good science and good policy. In the first instance, we need to massively increase global public investment in agricultural research and development. Then we need to make sure the fruits of that research reach farmers everywhere. I also think that commercial wild harvests, such as fishing and forestry, should be phased out in favour of sustainable farming that dovetails with the local environment.
We need to be smarter in the way we design and run our cities, limiting water use and maximising recycling. But we also have to change behaviour, encouraging lower protein and higher vegetable diets. And we should seriously look at ways of peacefully limiting the human population to between two and three billion over the next century.
We solved the problems of food production in the past with the agricultural revolution in the 18th century and the green revolution of the 1960s. Now we need to do it again.
Barring nuclear wars, pandemics and cosmic accidents, there will be about 9.1 billion people living in the world in 2050. Yet they will eat as much food as 13 billion people at today's nutritional levels. So how will we feed them all? The answer to this question could be the greatest scientific challenge of the 21st century – greater even than finding a solution to climate change.
The problem is that humanity is consuming more food, year-on-year, than it produces, especially as demand for high-protein food increases in high population developing countries like China and India.
The world is also moving towards a water crisis: cities are now taking up to half of the water that was once used to grow food, while groundwater levels are declining in every country where it is used for food production. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in the U.S. suggests that by 2025 water scarcity may inflict an annual loss of 350 million tonnes of food – roughly equivalent to losing today's global rice harvest or the entire U.S. grain crop.
We're also losing land; we are building on it, eroding and degrading it, or locking it in conservation reserves. Whatever the cause, the total available area of arable land is now falling. Compounding this, we are losing nutrients in the land we do have.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation notes that we apply about 150 million tonnes of elemental fertiliser to our farms every year; however the U.S. Department of Agriculture points out that we lose six times that amount – an estimated 1.1 billion tonnes of nutrients – through soil erosion and leaching.
The rise of biofuels presents another serious issue since it takes over arable land and diverts resources from food production (see, Non-crop biofuels to boost food security, Cosmos Online). It is estimated that by 2020 we will be burning 400 million tonnes of grain a year – equivalent to the entire world rice crop – just to keep our cars on the road.
And if you thought those figures weren't alarming enough, then there's the issue thrown up by climate change. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the U.S. says "agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 per cent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 per cent."
In light of all these hurdles, as I see it, the challenge is to double world food output by 2050 using less land, far less water and fewer nutrients – all in the teeth of increasing rates of drought. And we need to do it sustainably.
In Australia, discussion about the future of agriculture has largely been about drought and climate change, and has ignored the fact that the world may be entering a prolonged period of shortages and famines at a time of vastly increased demand for food. At top policy level in Australia and many other countries there is apathy about a potentially grave problem facing humanity in the medium term.
This situation brings with it the very real possibility of regional and global instability. It is already manifest in rising food prices in the U.S., Australia and many other countries around the world. According to the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, around 60 per cent of conflicts in the last 15 years have had, at their core, a scarcity of food, land or water.
Many countries, including Australia, have not yet grasped that agricultural policy is defence policy, refugee policy, immigration policy and environmental policy as well as health, food and economic policy. We persist in seeing it as an isolated issue, and we cannot afford to do so for much longer.
I believe we are quite capable of solving these issues through good science and good policy. In the first instance, we need to massively increase global public investment in agricultural research and development. Then we need to make sure the fruits of that research reach farmers everywhere. I also think that commercial wild harvests, such as fishing and forestry, should be phased out in favour of sustainable farming that dovetails with the local environment.
We need to be smarter in the way we design and run our cities, limiting water use and maximising recycling. But we also have to change behaviour, encouraging lower protein and higher vegetable diets. And we should seriously look at ways of peacefully limiting the human population to between two and three billion over the next century.
We solved the problems of food production in the past with the agricultural revolution in the 18th century and the green revolution of the 1960s. Now we need to do it again.
A Malthusian catastrophe (or Malthusian check, crisis, dilemma, disaster, trap, controls, or limit) is a return to subsistence-level conditions as a result of population growth outpacing agriculturalproduction. Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well. Based on the work of political economist Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), theories of Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the subsistence theory of wages. The main difference is that the Malthusian theories predict over several generations or centuries whereas the subsistence theory of wages predicts over years and decades.
Original Critics of the Malthusian Catastrophe Debunked by 2007 Wall Street Journal Front Page Story
An August 2007 science review in The New York Times raised the claim that the Industrial Revolution had enabled the modern world to break out of the Malthusian Trap,[1] while a front page Wall Street Journal article in March 2008 pointed out various limited resources which may soon limit human population growth because of a widespread belief in the importance of prosperity for every individual and the rising consumption trends of large developing nations such as China and India.[2]
A Malthusian catastrophe (or Malthusian check, crisis, dilemma, disaster, trap, controls, or limit) is a return to subsistence-level conditions as a result of population growth outpacing agriculturalproduction. Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well. Based on the work of political economist Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), theories of Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the subsistence theory of wages. The main difference is that the Malthusian theories predict over several generations or centuries whereas the subsistence theory of wages predicts over years and decades.
An August 2007 science review in The New York Times raised the claim that the Industrial Revolution had enabled the modern world to break out of the Malthusian Trap,[1] while a front page Wall Street Journal article in March 2008 pointed out various limited resources which may soon limit human population growth because of a widespread belief in the importance of prosperity for every individual and the rising consumption trends of large developing nations such as China and India.[2]
"By 2025, the world’s population will swell from 6.6 billion to 8 billion people. Climate simulations predict sustained drought for the American Midwest and giant swathes of farmland in Africa and Asia.Is mathematician Thomas Malthus’s 200-year-old prediction, that human growth will one day outpace agriculture, finally coming to pass? Advances in farming technology have kept us fed so far, but the planet’s resources are tapped."
Here is a link to the official story from Popular Science
Malthus concluded that unless family size was regulated, man's misery of famine would become globally epidemic and eventually consume Man. Malthus' view that poverty and famine were natural outcomes of population growth and food supply was not popular among social reformers who believed that with proper social structures, all ills of man could be eradicated.
